Trump’s third term.
President Trump has said that he is more than a little interested in seeking a third term as president. In doing so, he had to pointedly say that he wasn’t joking about the possibility, The fact that he had to delineate between when he is joking and when he is serious underscores the scattershot nature of his comments. Some of the things that he says seem to be rather outrageous, but he repeats them, often with a serious tone. And then later, when there is some blowback, Trump or some of his surrogates have to say he was merely joking. The commentary—from his inner circle—will often rhetorically question why anyone would think he was serious.
So in this case, Trump made sure that his observers and followers knew he was quite serious about wanting to seek a third term in spite of a Constitutional amendment that seems to say this quest would be impossible.
Like many issues that swirl around Trump, there are things that were said, things that were thought to have been said, and things that were speculated to have been said.
Trump did not rule out the possibility of running but also said it was too early to think about it. Several news accounts that I have seen said that Trump referred to his polls and then said “A lot of people want me to do it.”
In reviewing multiple sources, I could not find a single quote that had Trump referring to his poll numbers so I think the news sources are substituting “A lof ot people want me to do it,” with referring to his poll numbers. Is this important? Well, yes. If we are to evaluate the current situation, we need to be vigilant and work with what actually happened as opposed to what we imagined happened.
So let’s work with what we have. It appears that Trump is interested in a third term and he has said “A lot of people want me to do it.” Trump has also said that he hasn’t thought much about a third term and that he is “focused on the current.” Since from time-to-time, going back to his first term in office, Trump has mentioned the possibility of running for a third term, it seems highly unlikely that he hasn’t thought much about it. This early in his second term, it is also unlikely he has developed plans yet, but it is clear he has thought about. And we also know that much of Trump’s presidency is blueprinted by people around him.
What about his observation that “A lot of people want me to do it.” Is there ever a time when what “a lot of people want” is elevated to something that can be done or should be done regardless of what laws stand in the way. America is a Constitutional Democracy, so even if a lot of people are enamored with something forbidden by the Constitution, there is still a long and arduous process to have it changed,
Looking at the actual words—at what point does “A lot of people” constitute something that has to be done. Any kid on the schoolyard quickly learns that taking a survey of his friends doesn’t confirm that an action is ethical or right just because “a lot of people” the kids knows says so. Democracy doesn’t work that way.”
How many of these “a lot of people” add up to a third term. Let’s look at the polls. Surveying as many polls as I could find, it looks like Trump’s favorability rating is currently between 43% and 47%. That means a lot of people don’t think the Trump presidency is a good idea, and it doesn’t seem to be enough to be a rising tide that could countermand the Constitution. (To be fair and accurate on this review of the polls, these are overall ratings. Trump has some better poll numbers for single issues.)
Yes—let’s take a look at the Constitution and we’ll explore how this 3rd term could happen. The 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution says this:
No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice…
Now let’s look for loopholes. The simplest way would be to change it. The Amendment changed the Constitution from having no term limits to having a two-term maximum term limit, so can’t it just be changed back.
In the articles on the Constitution, on this site, I have discussed how extraordinarily difficult it is to pass a constitutional amendment, especially in the partisan world we are living in. It would have to be approved by two-thirds of both houses of Congress and three quarters of the states. It is not likely that there’ll be any time in this generation where a faction would be able to gather the necessary votes.
Now let’s look for loopholes. Consider this one, Vance or another Trump ally runs for President. Trump runs as his running mate. If Vance or the Trump ally wins, then he resigns the presidency soon after taking office. The VP will become the President. The Constitution only says that no person can be elected to the office of president twice. This is a viable loophole dependent on the Trump ally winning the presidency.
An even easier route would be for Trump to be elected to the House and then elected Speaker of the House. If the elected president and vice president resign, guess who would be president? Yes, the Speaker of the House
What about the Supreme Court? Strange things have happened in the history of the republic, but constitutional scholars tend to agree that there would be no chance of challenging the Constitutional amendment in the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court currently has a super-majority of conservatives, but it is difficult to imagine any case would have any merit against: No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice…. The Supreme Court has no Constitutional power to overturn amendments to the Constitution. There has long been some debate over parts of the Constitution that may or may not be deemed unamendable, but Constitutional scholars agree that the procedures governing the qualifications of presidents and term lengths is not one of them.
So what’s left? We are back to only two ways that Trump serves a third term. 1) A Constitutional Amendment to change the 22nd Amendment; and 2) Having a two-term president elected as either Vice President or Speaker of the House and then becoming president on the death or resignation of the President, or President and Vice President, in the case of being elected to Speaker of the House.
